INSEE-ITSEE study: “Over the past ten years, Saint-Martin has lost 4,200 residents”
On Monday 6 July, the Territorial Institute for Statistics and Economic Studies of Saint Martin (ITSEE), in partnership with the National Institute of Statistics (INSEE) for the Antilles and French Guiana, presented a new study at its offices in Hope Estate. This study analyses data collected between 2012 and 2023.
In 2022, the French part of the island had a population of 31,500. “Over the past ten years, Saint Martin has lost 4,200 residents, representing a 12 per cent decline,” explains Patrick Hernandez, inter-regional director of INSEE Antilles-Guyane. This population decline is thought to have begun in 2008 and to have accelerated following Hurricane Irma in 2017. According to the study, this decline can be attributed to various factors. Firstly, the “net migration”, with more people leaving than arriving. Furthermore, the birth rate is reportedly falling. Although births still outnumber deaths, they are no longer sufficient to offset the population loss. At the same time, mortality has risen by “20 per cent between 2012 and 2022”, the analysis reveals, peaking during the Covid-19 health crisis.
A population shaped by mobility
The population of Saint-Martin consists of “one-third natives, one-third immigrants and one-third people born in another French region”, explains Patrick Hernandez. This structure illustrates the importance of population movements in the local demographic balance. This is a fragile balance, which is being undermined by more people leaving than arriving. As there are no post-A-level courses on the island, young people from Saint-Martin leave the island to continue their studies. This is often a one-way journey, as the territory offers only “11 per cent of managerial posts, compared with 22 per cent in mainland France”. Young graduates therefore build their lives far from their home island. As a result, according to ITSEE and INSEE, Saint Martin’s population is ageing. In 2022, statisticians recorded “36 people aged over 65 for every 100 young people under 20, compared with 16 in 2012”. The study also highlights a decrease in household size. This phenomenon is reflected in “an increase in small main residences”, whilst housing pressures persist, particularly due to “the rise in the number of vacant properties and accommodation intended for tourism”.
An economy still weakened by successive crises
As the island’s economic lifeblood, tourism is not expected to have returned to its pre-Irma levels by 2022. The accommodation and catering sector was severely affected by the hurricane, followed by the 2020 health crisis. Between 2017 and 2021, the wealth generated by this sector is estimated to have fallen by nearly 27 per cent. Nevertheless, the study highlights an increase in the employment rate among 15–64-year-olds. ‘54 per cent’ of residents report being in work in 2022, compared with ‘50 per cent’ in 2012. Another encouraging sign is that the median wage is reported to have risen faster than in Guadeloupe, reaching “€1,970” in 2022 – an increase of “15.6 per cent” since 2019. These encouraging figures could, however, be refined, particularly through an upcoming collaboration set to be established between the ITSEE in Saint Martin and the statistical office of Sint Maarten. This joint effort could thus provide a better understanding of the demographic, economic and social dynamics across the whole of the island.
